One year has passed since Russia started its invasion of Ukraine on February 24. Significant portions of eastern Ukraine are still controlled by Russian forces despite counterattacks by the Ukrainian army. Most recently, on January 19, 2023, Ukrainian soldiers left the conflict-torn Donbas region’s Soledar, which is again back under Russian rule.
The second-largest global displacement issue is a result of the war, according to the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR). 6.3 million Ukrainians have so far sought asylum in Europe. About 6.6 million people are internally displaced within the nation.
The UN reports that many individuals, particularly from the regions of eastern Ukraine, are being deported to Russia or are being forced to emigrate there. This clarifies why there are so many refugees in Russia. Several of them have previously attempted to go from Russia to Europe.
The UNHCR claims that the humanitarian situation in Ukraine has “rapidly deteriorated.” Humanitarian aid is currently required by about 40% of the population. The state of the economy is likewise dire. The country’s gross domestic product (GDP), as estimated by the World Bank and the Ukrainian Ministry of Agricultural Policy and Food, dropped by 35% in 2022. Today, almost 60% of people are considered to be poor. Around €130 billion ($139 billion) worth of Ukrainian infrastructure was destroyed as a result of Russian assaults.
The situation in Russia is less dire than anticipated compared to Ukraine because the country’s economy has not suffered as much. But, experts predict that existing restrictions will finally start to have an impact once new EU penalties against Russia were passed in February of this year.
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development predicts that the Russian economy would contract by 5.6% this year, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts only moderate growth of 0.3%.
Russia’s income from oil and gas initially increased dramatically following a spike in energy prices in March 2022, but then it continued to decline. As of December 2021, the revenue from energy exports has returned to its pre-war level.
Russia’s energy export earnings are projected to continue to shrink due to falling gas and oil prices, declining demand, particularly from the EU, and stagnant Chinese consumption.
Ukraine has gotten billions in military, humanitarian, and financial aid since the invasion started. The US tops the list of donors with more over €70 billion in contributions.
Germany is one of the major armament exporters to Ukraine, and the EU and its member states have mobilised almost €50 billion. For 2023, military support estimated to cost €2.2 billion is planned.
The military footprint of NATO has also grown on its eastern flank. worldwide battlegroups worldwide battlegroups The Baltic republics have received the deployment of so-called multinational battlegroups, and airspace surveillance has been stepped up in the area.
After the invasion, many anticipated a world food crisis, but so far, the worst-case scenario has not materialised. The US and Ukrainian departments of agriculture project a rise in world wheat output from 778 million tonnes in 2021–22 to 783 million tonnes in 2022–23.
After the Russian invasion in May 2022, wheat prices reached a height of more over €430 per tonne but have subsequently dropped to just about €300. When wheat was traded for €275 per tonne prior to the invasion, prices were close to those levels.
Ukraine, which continues to be one of the world’s top producers of wheat, is currently receiving compensation from other nations. Particularly, Australia and Russia have increased their output. The surge is attributed to “the absorption of the four Ukrainian territories,” according to the Russian news service Tass. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture anticipates a considerably higher harvest than the US Department of Agriculture, at 102 million tonnes.